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No threat to the Cayman Islands at this time; monitor.

Published 23rd October 2017, 10:3am

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Slow development of this system is possible. while it moves northwestward to northward. Formation chance through 48 hours near 0 percent, formation chance through 5 days, medium; 40 percent. This low pressure system poses no immediate threat to the Cayman Islands; monitor.

The western Caribbean is notorious for being the location where some of the world’s most intense hurricanes are born. At this time of year, we need to begin watching the western Caribbean for potential development. A combination of moisture in the atmosphere, warm ocean temperature and winds make this area the ideal nursery grounds for hurricanes.

Statistically the overall peak time for hurricanes is midway through the month of September, but that is not the case for us here in the Cayman Islands. The Caribbean hurricane season reaches its peak during October (Source: the World Weather Travelers Guide). The surface ocean temperature during October is approximately 1°C warmer in the south-western parts of the Caribbean than any other month of the year and during this time, rainfall increases providing the necessary ingredients for a hurricane to form.