Potential Tropical Cyclone
Published 27th October 2017, 4:34pm
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 84.5 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster northward motion is expected to begin tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly to the south of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
The Cayman Islands can expect cloudy rainy weather conditions lasting through Sunday morning. Weather models forecast 1 to 1.25 inches to fall between 7 pm this evening through 7 pm tomorrow evening. This will result in continued flooding of low lying areas and residents of low lying areas should exercise caution.
Additionally winds and seas will gradually increase over the Cayman Islands through tomorrow morning. Tomorrow Grand Cayman can expect southerly winds at 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts, Sister Islands 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts. This will result in very rough seas of 7 to 9 feet with swells along the west coast Grand Cayman. A marine warning is in effect. All residents and marine interests are advised to stay in safe harbor.